Philippines Coronavirus w/ Daily Updates

When is it safe to travel to the Philippines?

This chart attempts to smooth out the official data from the Philippines government and predict the inflection point (turning point) of the mathematical Logistic Curve for the virus infection.

As of April 3, 2020, it does not look like the ‘inflection point’ for the Philippines has been reached.  However, if we reach the point tomorrow (April 4th) it means we have about 3 weeks of virus spread and decay before it is finished.  This puts the end of the virus pandemic in the Philippines around April 25 time-frame.

I am guessing that hotels and the travel industry would need a few days to get back in business, so I would not plan to make any travel plans to the Philippines before May 1, 2020. 

Of course, we need to wait and see the actual date of the inflection point of the virus S-curve growth so we can better estimate when the virus is going to be done and it is safe to travel to the Philippines.

The red-colored Momentum graph below is a 2-day derivative of the 6-day Moving Average for new daily cases in the Philippines.

I will be updating this graph on a daily basis (in the evening Filipino time), so please check back often the see the latest update.

UPDATE:  To see the latest Filipino virus stats, please go to:

COVID-19 pandemic in the Philippines

-Nils

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